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China
Nov 28, 2019 21:56:38 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Nov 28, 2019 21:56:38 GMT -8
We'll see how that works out. Back before Congress voted to give China permanent most favored nation status (early in Bush 43's terms, I think), it had to be approved every year. The mechanism was an official presidential declaration that China was making progress on human rights. It never was, but Presidents of both parties said it was year after year. No one could require them to tell the truth. So it may prove now.
Still, there are many who'd be glad to trade the population of Hong Kong for the population of the Bay area of California, or some similar trade-off. We would definitely be the winners, and so would the people of Hong Kong. For that matter, Beijing would find the leftists less troublesome, and they might well prefer Xi's rule to Trump's. Everybody would win.
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China
Nov 28, 2019 21:59:48 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Nov 28, 2019 21:59:48 GMT -8
One can dream, can't one?
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China
Nov 29, 2019 11:38:53 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Nov 29, 2019 11:38:53 GMT -8
I spoke to a friend in Hongkong last night. His assessment of future possibilities is not positive. Although the population overwhelmingly voted to support the pro-democracy movement, both Beijing and Carrie Lam (Hongkong's Chief Executive) have come out confirming that they will basically ignore the vote.
My friend believes this is a very bad move and it means that the protests will gain new impetus and come back in a more violent form. He is not feeling very upbeat about how things will develop.
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China
Nov 29, 2019 12:03:41 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Nov 29, 2019 12:03:41 GMT -8
Unfortunately, this is what is to be expected. The district councils run local administrations, but have nothing to do with legislation. The legislative council elections are next year, and if the pro-democracy faction wins again by a similar margin, Hong Kong will be in for some very interesting times -- in the sense of the old Chinese curse.
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China
Nov 30, 2019 9:49:13 GMT -8
Post by artraveler on Nov 30, 2019 9:49:13 GMT -8
There are only one thing holding back the PRC from sending in the tanks and that is the unknown factor of what President Trump will do. It is, I think, unlikely he would oppose PRC intervention with military action but he very likely would use some crippling sanctions and tariffs.
Currently the Reagan, Lincoln and the LHA America are in the western pacific and the Persian Gulf. Truman and Ford are in the Atlantic and Nimitz and Roosevelt are in the Pacific along with Boxer ARG and Makin Island LHD. This is a considerable force if deployed to the Western Pacific. Coupled with B-2s from Guam and Diego Garcia it should scare the hell out of any aggressor. The uncertinaty of how and if it would be used should give pause to the PRC.
The PRC is very like the democrats here, they have a tiger by the ears and dare not let go. Doing nothing with HK will encourage rebellions on the mainland and the example of the fall of East Germany has to be on their minds. There is no such thing as a gradual fall from power for a community regime, when it goes it fails completely and quickly. Military action in HK may only be a temporary solution that brings even worse consequences. For American democrats staying the course on impeachment has the same options, they are losing and they know it, but can't stop. I no longer have any friends in HK, but if I did I would them to get out.
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China
Nov 30, 2019 9:57:59 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Nov 30, 2019 9:57:59 GMT -8
Absolutely correct. In trying to explain the situation to friends in the USA, I tell them that the Reds have no good options here. No matter what they do, there will be bad consequences.
While things are bad for Hongkong, if the Trump administration is smart, they will be able to use the situation to further American interests and subdue China's world ambitions, at least somewhat.
I also do not believe Trump will use physical force to punish China if they go full-force against the rioters/protestors. I think sanctions would be the weapon of choice. But the question is how many other countries would go along with these? I believe many in Europe would, but many others around the world would not. In such a case, Trump would have to squeeze these countries with the threat of sanctions of their own, in order to get their cooperation. It would not be pretty.
I will say that much of what Americans hear is very one-sided. Only part of what is happening in Hongkong has to do with protesting for people's rights. Some of it would seem to be motivated by anarchy and probably internal politics in China. I also have little doubt that in some cases the Triads, local mafia, are stirring things up.
Recently, a bunch of thugs tore up the streets of a village/neighborhood in the New Territories. I believe the streets were of bricks. The locals started to put them back together and the thugs started throws the bricks at the locals and the locals reciprocated in kind. One old man was killed in this event, which really had nothing to do with building democracy.
One thing I can guarantee, is that nowhere in the USA would the authorities allow such protests/riots go on for 6 months. That the Chinese have, shows the difficult situation they are in. These protests are just one of many problems they are having. Inflation is up significantly because of the pork prices. Some estimates say that over 100 million pigs will die this year due to the African Swine Virus. The USA is squeezing China on tariffs and the South China Sea, and that they have huge problems with their Muslims is clear from the "re-education camps" holding 1 million people in West China.
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China
Nov 30, 2019 10:28:24 GMT -8
Post by artraveler on Nov 30, 2019 10:28:24 GMT -8
The triads in HK are as much a fact of life as the cartels in Mexico and much more dangerous. The triads have no good reason to deal with the PRC and the dealings I know about were in the 70s and 80s, but I doubt much has changed. For the PRC it is impossible to know if an official is connected to one of the triad factions. Family loyalty is a high thing and pressure from family that is triad connected is seldom overcome.
It might be that PRC best policy is to wash it's hands of HK and walk away, however, saving face is likely to prevent that.
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China
Nov 30, 2019 10:37:52 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Nov 30, 2019 10:37:52 GMT -8
I think the problem with that is that the rest of China is watching and if Hongkong gets away with rebellion, you can be sure numerous other rebellions will flare up across China. The country is already difficult enough to rule without adding such events.
How the government will probably react may be signaled by the old Chinese saying, "You kill the chicken to teach the monkey. You kill one to teach a hundred." Like the rest of humanity, when it gets down to it, the Chinese understand force, but it's use has been necessary more often with the Chinese than with many other people. Why that is the case is for another discussion.
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China
Nov 30, 2019 10:58:23 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Nov 30, 2019 10:58:23 GMT -8
As I recall, saving face is an important goal in Asia. When the Korean War peace talks began at Kaesong, the Chinese and North Koreans would make their chairs much larger than for the UN people in order to show dominance and thus cause them to lose face. Later the talks were moved to Panmunjom, where they weren't able to pull such shenanigans. The proper response to such stunts would have been walk out and then a few days later launch an attack or two to gain ground and thus move the border for the eventual ceasefire line.
Something similar happened with the Paris Vietnam War talks in 1968. There would be all sorts of niggling demands from the North Vietnamese, intended to gain face by exhausting the Americans into giving in. In that case, the proper response would have been (again, a few days later) some devastating bombing raids, such as knocking out the dikes on the Red and Black Rivers.
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Post by kungfuzu on Nov 30, 2019 14:09:22 GMT -8
Saving face is very important in Asia. Equally important in such scenarios as you mention is trying to make your opponent look silly and small. By getting an opponent to lose his temper, he is losing face and becomes a laughing stock to the Asians.
As to Asian, particularly Chinese, negotiating, Asians well know that most Westerners have a lack of patience and use this against Westerners in all sorts of negotiations. One part of this tactic is to start negotiations by demanding the most outrageous terms, which will irritate the Western opponents.
Westerners say "time is money." Asians see time as an ally and are willing to spend it as they are in no hurry.
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China
Dec 3, 2019 19:44:23 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Dec 3, 2019 19:44:23 GMT -8
An interesting article which notes that the trade war between the USA and China is just one of many problems facing the Reds. The West has finally figured it outThe Chinese Communist Party fears a slowdown in China's economic growth as one of its main claims to power is that it has brought China back as a world economic and military power. If the economy falters, there will be hell to pay. And that is when I fear China the most. They will very likely divert attention from domestic problems to foreign "problems" in order to save the party. An attack on Taiwan would be quite likely. |
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China
Dec 3, 2019 20:11:42 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Dec 3, 2019 20:11:42 GMT -8
The Far East is indeed living in very interesting times. I wonder if the eurocrats will base any carbon tax on actual carbon emissions (which would be good for the US) or on adherence to the hoax (which would be bad for the US as well as China). It all depends on how much their climate alarmism is sincere and how much it's simply a means by which the watermelon eurocrats cement their fascism.
What is shaping up to happen couldn't happen to nicer people than the Chicoms, but unfortunately too much of the price will be born by ordinary people there (as is happening in Venezuela) and elsewhere. The wages of socialism are death.
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China
Dec 14, 2019 19:57:50 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Dec 14, 2019 19:57:50 GMT -8
I have started sending out my Christmas cards via email, and am receiving responses from recipients, some of whom I have known for forty to sixty years. One friend from Singapore who I met in February 1980 sent the reply below.
Merry Christmas to you and family too. Another eventfully year especially Hong Kong my second home. Thanks for American firm support prevent China’s brutality toward their own citizens- remind me of 1989 Jun 4 massacre while we are in hk. Conclusion Communism never be trusted!! My best wishes for American sometime naive but genuinely kind at heart.
This shows many people overseas still appreciate the USA.
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China
Dec 15, 2019 8:41:44 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Dec 15, 2019 8:41:44 GMT -8
I responded to my Singaporean Chinese friend's comments on Hongkong, China and America. One of the things I mentioned was that it might help Hongkong's situation if they got rid of the woman running things, Carrie Lam. My friend responds as follows:
She merely a puppet...Actually she did stated wanted to resign when she spoke to foreign business community in hk n there is tape probably intentionally leak out by herself months ago. But she was not allowed to ... obviously control by communist party. If she not obey- whole family will have accidentally dead. It happen to many Chinese billionaires hide in Europe n even USA. Recently law minister from HK claim sick in UK being escorted back to Beijing by private jet and her husband in HK under investigation too. President Xi recently restrained on hk entirely due to U S pressure. He chicken out on trade deal with US too. Donald trump did a great job to press down on China. This is his credit that many Americans refused to admit. Act of deal by trump work . It is blessing in disguise for America that trump is there to play hard ball with China I must said
This is again a situation where foreigners who have a better understanding of the world see things more clearly than many spoiled Americans. And my friend doesn't particularly like Trump.
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China
Dec 15, 2019 9:01:21 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Dec 15, 2019 9:01:21 GMT -8
The problem right now is that China wants to jump the gun on taking total control of Hong Kong, which is scheduled for about 30 years from now. Xi obviously isn't very patient, which I suppose is an occupational hazard of totalitarian dictators (despite the general Oriental reputation for patience). But eventually this will happen unless Hong Kong can find a way to become Singapore II. (Well, both are Chinese cities developed by the British.)
I wish them luck, but in the long run I don't think Xi can let Hong Kong go. But you never know.
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China
Dec 17, 2019 10:22:25 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Dec 17, 2019 10:22:25 GMT -8
There was a time when China didn't want to take back Hongkong or Macao (at least temporarily), but now that both have reverted back to China, they will not be released again. I have no doubt that should it appear that Hongkong was moving toward secession, China would intervene with overwhelming force. And I don't think things would be any different if someone other than Xi were ruling China.
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China
Jan 11, 2020 9:51:42 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Jan 11, 2020 9:51:42 GMT -8
Taiwan had a national election today and has returned the DDP party to power. The DDP is the anti One-China party in Taiwan. It has declared that the One-China-Two-Systems proposal by the Reds is not acceptable. The DDP president was re-elected with a winning margin of 19.5%. This is amazing for someone who was 20-30% behind in the polls just 8 months ago. We can thank China's handling of the Hong Kong protests for this huge swing.
I don't know if the old KMT, Chiang Kai Shek's party, is dead, but it is certainly in the ICU.
The USA and Taiwan are closer today than they have been for years. Taiwan is now able to purchase weapons from the USA which other administrations had not allowed to be sold.
The PRC is performing miracles. It has united countries as disparate as Indonesia, Vietnam and Japan. Perhaps more amazing it the fact that the one are in which the Dims and Reps work together is in supporting Taiwan against China.
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China
Jan 11, 2020 10:23:19 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Jan 11, 2020 10:23:19 GMT -8
Well, the Kuomintang was always the party of Chiang and his mainland Chinese refugees. Once the island became democratic, and the older generation died out, it was probably inevitable that the KMT would cease to be a major political player.
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China
Jan 11, 2020 16:12:44 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Jan 11, 2020 16:12:44 GMT -8
I am not sure there is much that is inevitable in such a case. But there is no doubt that many in the older generation who controlled the KMT were "Chinese" first and had personal connections with many of those who ruled the PRC.. As such, the extremely close connections to the mainland were weakened when those who "invaded"Taiwan in 1949-50, i.e. Chiang Kai Shek and his KMT, died out. They longed to return to China, as its rulers.
This is no longer the case. Most Taiwanese now see themselves as Taiwanese first and Chinese second.
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China
Jan 12, 2020 20:29:21 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Jan 12, 2020 20:29:21 GMT -8
Again, East Europeans who have lived under the communist tyranny are ahead of West Europe. A small, but important step in the right direction as regards China. China is not reliable partner |
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