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China
Sept 5, 2019 10:46:55 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 5, 2019 10:46:55 GMT -8
What will happen if/when China invades Taiwan depends on who the US President is. Most Demagogues would bluster but do nothing. (Some probably wouldn't even bluster. What would BernieBro care?) Most Republicans, however reluctantly (whether because they don't want another war or are appeasing globalist interests), will do something. And China may find such an invasion difficult -- after all, to the best of my knowledge Taiwan still controls Quemoy and Matsu, at or near the entrances to the two main seaports near Taiwan (Amoy and Foochow in the Wade-Giles transliteration). Until China can take those (and then the Pescadores), it can hardly hope to conquer Taiwan.
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China
Sept 5, 2019 10:52:58 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Sept 5, 2019 10:52:58 GMT -8
No doubt, but unless a president is a full-blown communist, i.e. brother Bernie, geopolitics is going to force our hand. If the USA wishes to maintain its position in the Pacific and indeed the world, we will have little choice. The decisions in that area truly effect our national security unlike the mess we got ourselves into in Iraq.
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China
Sept 5, 2019 11:46:31 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 5, 2019 11:46:31 GMT -8
This makes excellent sense. Unfortunately, Demagogues generally don't, so that's no guarantee that people who talk of rationing or banning meat, car "buy-backs", and banning air travel will do anything sensible.
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China
Sept 5, 2019 16:36:08 GMT -8
Post by artraveler on Sept 5, 2019 16:36:08 GMT -8
I have no doubt the US will come to aid Taiwan should it come to threat of war; along with Japan, S Korea, Australia. It is even possible that Vietnam would join an American coalition to protect Taiwan. Taiwan is defensible where HK is not. 80 miles of ocean is a mighty wide and deep moat. The PRC may or may not have enough landing craft to pull off an opposed invasion. They have been threating invasion since the 50s. Surely, that is enough time to plan it out.
Of course, we have been assuming a PRC invasion for just as long and have war-gamed it annually since the 60s. Taiwan has a decent GDP growth and I suspect the sanctions and tariffs on China have actually improved the Taiwan economy. I know there are a number of companies leaving PRC for Vietnam and Taiwan this problem in HK will not encourage anyone to want to stay in China.
Xi is stuck in a real Hobson's choice, there is no correct answer to his problem just less and more bad. If I were leading the protests in HK I would continue to push for the entire slate to be adopted and PRC troops away from the border. If they surrender on this one issue and call it victory then Xi wins. He will infiltrate the protesters and destroy them from within.
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Post by kungfuzu on Sept 5, 2019 16:59:01 GMT -8
I believe you might add New Zealand to the list. The Philippines would also be a natural as their shores are about 150-200 miles off Taiwan's. But with their present president, I am not so sure.
Over the years, Taiwan has been the biggest foreign investor in China. They are now pulling out and returning to Taiwan. So are many other companies. Foxconn's boss has floated the idea of selling his huge operations there. These are supposed to be worth something like US$8 billion.
Over the last couple of years, the Trump administration has been putting much more pressure on China than most people know. It is not just tariffs.
China has also been badly hit by the African Swine flu over the last couple of years. Tens of millions of pigs have died and pork is the no. 1 meat consumed by the Chinese. Dead pigs have been left all over the country-side to rot.
Millions of Chinese have lost jobs over the last couple of years due to the pressure the USA has been applying and the problems in the ag. sector. It is not going to get better soon.
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China
Sept 5, 2019 17:24:21 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 5, 2019 17:24:21 GMT -8
That's a nice set of allies. Australia has been our most loyal ally in the past century or so, even supporting us in Vietnam (unlike the other British Commonwealth nations). And there might be others -- India has fought China before (in 1962) and might want revenge. But South Korea might be too concerned about a possible North Korean intervention to provide any significant assistance. But they too helped in Vietnam, so perhaps a few elite units could be sent. (I recall reading about a sign where they were practicing paradrops that warned about "falling ROKs".)
Incidentally, Hobson's choice is not a dilemma; it's take it or leave it. It comes from a stable man named Hobson who got annoyed when people would ask for a particular horse to ride, so he decided they'd have to take whichever was next. This was around 400 years ago, I think in one of the college towns.
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China
Sept 5, 2019 18:45:27 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Sept 5, 2019 18:45:27 GMT -8
True. I believe old Hobson had an inn and stables on some major post road in England. He developed the "first in/first out" method for horse rentals.
Premier Xi is between Scylla and Charbybdis, a rock and a hard space or the devil and the deep blue sea. None of which positions are very attractive.
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China
Sept 5, 2019 19:25:55 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 5, 2019 19:25:55 GMT -8
I checked Hobson's choice on wikipedia to get the details. Thomas Hobson had a large livery stable in Cambridge. I had the timing right (and the term was first reported around 1650) and that it was in a university town.
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China
Sept 6, 2019 13:37:42 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Sept 6, 2019 13:37:42 GMT -8
The link is to an article at the South China Morning Post which is Hongkong's main English daily.
This will give the reader an idea of the importance of pigs and pork in the Chinese diet and culture, as well as an idea of just how bad the African Swine Fever has hit and is continuing to hit China.
This is the type of thing which can spark riots and revolutions which then come up with slogans about democracy and human rights. Bellies before Beliefs.
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China
Sept 6, 2019 14:25:26 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 6, 2019 14:25:26 GMT -8
I think Red Storm Rising may have food shortages as the motivation. The Soviets invaded in order to grab the abundance available in Western Europe. There was also, around the same time, a two-part TV movie on World War III (with Rock Hudson as the American President) that included Soviet food shortages.
There was a Russian tale after they split with Red China. Mao had sent Khrushchev a telegram that they were having a food shortage in China and needed food shipments. Khrushchev replied that the Soviets (as usual) were having a bit of a shortage, too, and concluding, "Tighten belts". Mao sent back, "Send belts."
I also recall that one of the commodities Coldstream mentioned the Chinese occasionally dumping (he would listen to their broadasts to be forewarned about them) in Sarkhan (more or less a sequel to The Ugly American, whose title character is actually one of the good guys) was pigs' bristles.
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China
Sept 6, 2019 14:53:08 GMT -8
Post by artraveler on Sept 6, 2019 14:53:08 GMT -8
Red Storm Rising has little to do with food supply.
The plot revolves about oil in the Stans and the terrorist attack on a major refinery that reduces the Soviet refined oil reserves by about 30%. The leaders fear that once NATO is aware of the shortage they will only make a deal to supply oil to the USSR at the cost of giving up their stronghold in Eastern Europe. Red Storm is intended to make the seizure of Germany an accomplished fact before the full impact of the oil crisis hits, delay an American response until Soviet refineries can come back on line. The Soviets actually encourage small plot farming which improves the food supply, of course it does nothing for the oil crisis.
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China
Sept 6, 2019 14:57:01 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 6, 2019 14:57:01 GMT -8
I figured it was either oil or food, and couldn't remember for sure which. I suppose it's possible the book is included in one of our e-book collections, but those can be inconvenient to access for such purposes, which would still take quite some time.
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China
Sept 10, 2019 18:06:05 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Sept 10, 2019 18:06:05 GMT -8
The article paints a bleaker picture than even I knew. African Swine FeverEstimates are that 150-200 million pigs could die in China this year. Prices may almost double. This is a big deal in a country where the most popular meat is, by far, pork, and where millions (I would guess) are employed in this and related industries. |
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China
Sept 10, 2019 18:26:14 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 10, 2019 18:26:14 GMT -8
So this is different from swine flu -- and a lot deadlier to pigs, though not (yet) to people. And if it's likely to spread to other Asian countries, what if it comes here? If Iowa loses all of its pigs, they might start pressing harder for increased ethanol fuel use. And what Iowa wants it gets regardless of whether or not it makes sense as a policy.
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China
Sept 10, 2019 18:38:11 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Sept 10, 2019 18:38:11 GMT -8
I understand it has spread to some other Asia markets. In fact, I believe they think it got into China via Russia. The USA is pretty strict on importing such products. And many scientists are working on a vaccine for this disease. They already started appearing in China and the government there has warned against using some of them.
And it looks like the export of pork to China from the USA will increase this year, but even then China will not be able to make up the shortfall.
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China
Sept 10, 2019 18:46:37 GMT -8
Post by timothylane on Sept 10, 2019 18:46:37 GMT -8
In the novel On Her Majesty's Secret Service, the girls at Piz Gloria were going to spread diseases among livestock. The movie, as usual, made it more serious -- spreading human sterility worldwide.
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China
Sept 10, 2019 19:21:38 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Sept 10, 2019 19:21:38 GMT -8
The Tom Clancy novels, "Executive Orders" and "Rainbow Six" deal with first the Iranians trying to kill Americans and then radical environmentalists trying to all of humanity, except the chosen few, with the ebola virus.
I always believed the second book's premise was more believable than the first's. Nutty leftist environmental wackos could justify wiping out mankind for their crazy beliefs.
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China
Sept 15, 2019 19:54:31 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Sept 15, 2019 19:54:31 GMT -8
The piece in the South China Morning Post lays out how big a problem the African Swine Fever has become. Problems with PorkThis is the Year of the Pig in the Chinese Calendar and the 70th anniversary of the Communist takeover of China in 1949 is to be celebrated the first week of October. I just hope Trump is taking advantage of all the problems which Xi has. |
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China
Oct 2, 2019 6:37:22 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Oct 2, 2019 6:37:22 GMT -8
The link is to an article in the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong's major English daily, which shows how China's reputation is suffering around the world. China DownThe protests in Hong Kong took a deadlier turn, when a young protestor was shot by the police on Monday, which was the 70th anniversary of the Communist takeover of China. The Reds know they are in a delicate situation. The price of pork are still rising and if the Reds over-react in Hong Kong, the rest of the world might put sanctions on the sale of oil to them. This would hurt China badly. Russia might try to make up the difference, but I am not sure they could supply enough crude in the preferred grades. |
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Post by kungfuzu on Oct 2, 2019 7:34:15 GMT -8
The link is to a brief article stating that there is less than meets the eye when one looks at modern China.
I personally like the photos. Especially the second one. There is something about a bunch of attractive young females with rifles marching in red flight attendant uniforms which sets my heart pacing. A more tasteful bunch of militarists is nary to be found on our planet.
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