Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,101
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China
Jun 13, 2022 15:01:12 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Jun 13, 2022 15:01:12 GMT -8
Just as an aside, last night I started reading a book titled Engineers of Victory. It's going to take up some of these themes, particularly the problem of assaulting beaches. It just sounds like a book that you might be interested in. I'm through the introduction and am just starting on chapter one. I think your analysis is pretty good, by the way.
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Post by kungfuzu on Jun 13, 2022 15:32:55 GMT -8
The Taiwanese are not overly worried about the communists invading the main island. They have been preparing for a Chinese invasion since the commies took over China in 1949. Taiwan has about 200,000 active military personnel, and another 1.5 million reserve. My friends don't even want the Americans to send soldiers to Taiwan. What the Taiwanese need and request is that the USA sell them, not gift them, more weapons. Trump increased the amount of weapons which the USA sold to Taiwan, and Biden appeared to be willing to continue this policy. In fact, last year Taiwan purchased $750 million worth of M109A6 Paladin howitzers and support equipment. This was to be supplied in 2023. Unfortunately, the Biden administration decided to take that equipment and dedicate it to the Ukraine. As a result, the earliest that Taiwan will receive this equipment is 2026. I understand that the Taiwanese are trying to replace this material elsewhere. As I have said before, the topography of Taiwan makes an amphibious landing very difficult. There is one area on the North East Coast which might be considered, but any other possibilities are on the West Coast. Although it is not as mountainous as the East Coast, there are only a few areas on which a large landing force could disembark. I have been traveled the stretch from around Taipei to Kaohsiung many times. A bit further down from Kaohsiung is another area which the Chinese might use. Of course, the Taiwanese understand all of this very well and are prepared. As I have mentioned before, I understand that Taiwan has many thousands of missiles for use against any invader. One of the things which would most help them avoid any maritime invasion would be specialized sea mines. To-date, the USA will not sell these to them. If the Chinese as looking for trouble, they will create a blockade or first invade, the Kinmen Islands, which are only a few kilometers from Xiamen, Fujien.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,101
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China
Jun 13, 2022 15:54:41 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Jun 13, 2022 15:54:41 GMT -8
It would seem it will depend on whether or not China wants Taiwan so bad that they will scorch the earth first. It doesn't sound as if they can take Taiwan in any other way.
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Post by kungfuzu on Jun 13, 2022 15:59:44 GMT -8
Perhaps the main lesson any military can learn from the present Ukraine/Russia war is the absolute need for a top-notch air defense system. Perhaps more than any other factor giving the Russians the advantage was their ability to almost completely destroy the Ukrainian air force, thus giving the Russians virtual total air superiority. I suspect the Taiwanese are learning from this.
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Post by kungfuzu on Jun 13, 2022 16:05:31 GMT -8
They might decide to do that, but I think it unlikely. China wants and needs the great technology which Taiwan has. Taiwan are the best in the world, by a considerable distance, at producing advanced computer chips. TSMC is the crown jewel. They are building new foundries in the USA, but even these will not be as good as those in Taiwan. The chairman of TSMC believes that the success of his company cannot be replicated anywhere else in the world. He bases this on the work ethic and culture unique to Taiwan. I tend to agree with him.
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Post by artraveler on Jun 13, 2022 17:44:50 GMT -8
Engineers of Victory. This is the same Paul Kennedy that wrote Victory at Sea and the Rise and Fall of Great Powers. I have found his work very interesting and quotable. I have not read Engineers of Victory but I am sure it is the same quality.
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China
Jul 29, 2022 13:32:01 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Jul 29, 2022 13:32:01 GMT -8
This is getting serious. China threatens to shoot down Pelosi's plane I do not think Pelosi should have announced a visit to Taiwan at this moment. But our masters have shown themselves to be stupid, oblivious and crooked so I am not surprised. That said, I believe she has no choice now but to go ahead with the trip. We cannot allow Communist China to dictate the travel plans of the US Speaker of the House. We must call their bluff and if they go ahead and cause trouble we must respond appropriately, i.e. with force. Such challenges cannot be ignored. Our idiot leaders are arranging the circumstances for a third world war. I have no doubt that Biden's craven/cowardly withdrawal from Afghanistan as well as the West's failed sanctions against Russia and less-than-impressive actions in the Ukraine set the stage for this. International relations are important. International actions are more important. The leaders who walked Europe into WWI are geniuses compared to the clowns who are now in charge.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,101
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Post by Brad Nelson on Jul 29, 2022 17:36:15 GMT -8
Is this what you call a "horns of a dilemma"?
Our leaders might be idiots, but this is all squarely on the head of the Communist Chinese. Maybe a little nuclear clearing of that country wouldn't be a bad thing. We could preserve our Precious Bodily Fluids, although we might lose San Francisco, LA, New York, and Washington DC. But there could be a downside as well.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,101
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China
Jul 29, 2022 19:23:09 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Jul 29, 2022 19:23:09 GMT -8
This comment from the above article made me chuckle:
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China
Jul 29, 2022 20:25:34 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Jul 29, 2022 20:25:34 GMT -8
Being "right" will be little consolation if we get into WWIII.
As I have very often said on this blog, I think Red China is our biggest and most dangerous adversary. So no one can accuse me of being a surrogate for, or lapdog of China.
That said, I have an idea of how Chinese think and know something about their history. Viewing things through a "right and wrong" lens in such situations is foolish to a very high degree. Countries don't act on basis of moral "rights and wrongs." They act on interests. If one looses, feeling good about being "right" may be all one has, but it feels better to win, especially if one can avoid a fight and still win. Roosevelt's motto of "Walk softly, but carry a big stick" applies.
Taiwan does not have the same historical connection to China that the areas around the Yangtze, Yellow or Pearl Rivers do, but there was a large immigration to Taiwan from China from the late 18th through the 19th century until China ceded Taiwan to Japan in 1895. The fifty years that the Japanese occupied Taiwan were very important for the island. Unlike Koreans, who by-in-large hate Japan, the Taiwanese see Japan as a good teacher from whom they learned much. The connections between Taiwan and Japan are still strong and there are still signs of Japanese culture mixed into Taiwanese culture. This relationship with Japan is disturbing to China. Furthermore, the location of Taiwan is a large geopolitical problem for China.
In addition to that, one must also understand that mainland Chinese governments have always viewed "overseas" Chinese as under their protection and thumb. This was one reason my wife, who is a Singapore Chinese, would never visit China, even when we lived in Hongkong. She felt that her Singaporean citizenship would count for nothing and the criminal CCP could simply view her as another "overseas" Chinese who must owe allegiance to the motherland.
Finally, there is a strong historical resentment of the West and Japan in China. This is due to the humiliating period starting in the 1840s during which various sections of China were carved out and ruled by various European nations and Japan. Hell, for decades the Chinese customs service was run by Westerners, not the Chinese government. Believe me, the Chinese will use this resentment, along with a strong streak of national chauvanism to further their aims should it come to war. I am sure general thinking is something like this. "We are the Middle Kingdom, the leading nation for thousands of years, the superior race and we were humiliated when things were going bad for us due to the bloody Manchus. This historical aberration must be avenged and corrected. Now is our time in the sun."
None of this is going to change any time soon.
I am of the opinion that the USA must defend Taiwan if China attacks it or tries to conquer it. But that doesn't mean I want some fools in Washington D.C. to incite such a war through their stupidity and needless provocation. Again, being "right" will mean little to the thousands or more who would die in such an unnecessary conflict. Understanding one's adversary, his strengths, weaknesses, abilities, motivations and red lines, is much more important that "right and wrong." Look where "right and wrong" has gotten the USA over the last 30, or so, years. Numerous military failures, huge defense budgets, a Woke military, tens-of-trillions in deficits and a strong communist China which can now challenge USA power. Less than a great success, in my opinion. I submit we would have been better off sticking to basics like military preparedness, balancing our books and not trying to change China through capitalism and "free markets." It is always the same old story. Idiots and criminals.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,101
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China
Jul 30, 2022 6:40:46 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Jul 30, 2022 6:40:46 GMT -8
Where we disagree is that I don't think someone flying to a free country is "inciting" anything. China is trying to intimidate us and they can fuck off and die. We should not adopt the Stockholm Syndrome mindset. This is all on China. They are the beast. Could we manage them better? Maybe. But we'd just be picking nits. The 1000 lb. elephant in the room is the evil Communists running China. This is all on them.
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China
Jul 31, 2022 15:49:34 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Jul 31, 2022 15:49:34 GMT -8
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,101
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China
Jul 31, 2022 16:49:39 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Jul 31, 2022 16:49:39 GMT -8
I would have at least liked to have seen the Vegas odds on Pelosi's plane being shot down. A shame.
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China
Aug 1, 2022 5:37:28 GMT -8
Post by artraveler on Aug 1, 2022 5:37:28 GMT -8
No worries about it she doesn't fly on a plane and the radar signature of a broomstick is almost invisible
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China
Aug 1, 2022 9:23:23 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Aug 1, 2022 9:23:23 GMT -8
It now seems that her visit to Taiwan is back on.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,101
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Post by Brad Nelson on Aug 1, 2022 11:31:35 GMT -8
I wouldn't go to war with China if they shot down an American Speaker of the House. But nor would I give them a medal. I think. I'd give them a stern warning.
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China
Aug 2, 2022 9:43:53 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Aug 2, 2022 9:43:53 GMT -8
When the official mouthpiece of the leftist, new-world-order globalists comes out and criticizes Pelosi for going to Taiwan, then something is up. There must be some very large divisions in the Biden Administration as well as the military-industrial, congressional, security-state, foreign-policy, financial, intelligence complex. Don't go Nancy
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Post by artraveler on Aug 2, 2022 10:21:30 GMT -8
I admit I tend to look for motives even when they don't exist. However, given that Biden is in the pocket of the CCP and has a tough election cycle coming it is in the interest of the CCP to shore him up, at least a little and it is in the interest of the democrat to appear tough with China especially after the disaster in Afghanistan. So, sending Pelosi to Taiwan covers both goals the CCP can make tough noises knowing Biden will kowtow and Biden can make noises about how he personally stood up to the CCP by "allowing" Pelosi to go. He did not allow her to go Xi sent her. The political posturing is good for everyone.
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Post by kungfuzu on Aug 2, 2022 11:00:47 GMT -8
The Sirocco has no motive for blowing hot air, not so politicians. In politics and diplomacy motives always exist, we just don't always know them.
There is so much posturing going on that it is impossible to see clearing what is actually happening. The one certainty which I see is that Pelosi has landed in Taiwan and if the Chinese do nothing, they/Xi will lose face big time.
There have been huge amounts of military equipment sent to Fujian Province, especially to Xiamen the largest city on the coast. (Just across from Taiwan.) They have even had armor moving up and down beaches full of holiday makers. This is typical Chinese nonsense. It is for local consumption and, among other things, is trying to whip up the Chinese and take attention away from the very big problems (financial/real estate collapse) going on in China. Importantly, I have neither seen nor heard of a buildup of troop carriers or other assault vessels anywhere in China.
The Chinese, unlike the Russians, are notorious bullshitters. They are not quite as bad as the North Koreans, but they are close. Always trying to play mind games with others because the Chinese truly believe they are smart and others are stupid. This silliness can sometimes be quite transparent. But I am now waiting for some reaction from China. Who knows, it might even take place in the Ukraine.
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China
Aug 3, 2022 19:05:01 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Aug 3, 2022 19:05:01 GMT -8
The Chinese begin retaliation for Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. This is just a dry run for future operations. I suspect other actions will also take place. I figure China will shoot some missiles over Taiwan, which is a very aggressive action. The last time they did this was 1996. Temporary BlockadeI spoke to my friend in Taiwan last night about Pelosi's visit. He said nobody quite knew why Pelosi visited Taiwan, at this time, and thought that nobody in Taiwan actually wanted her to visit. But they could not ask her not to come as she is such a high ranking US politician. He was not sure what good her visit would do Taiwan, but he was sure that once she left their shores, Taiwan would have pay for it. He figured China would do something or other to show they were very unhappy with Taiwan. As one can see, that is already happening. Three days of cutting Taiwan off from the rest of the world. My friend did hope that the US would now sell Taiwan more weapons as Pelosi's visit worsened China-Taiwan relations. Therefore, America should do the right thing to help defend itself. Taiwan has plenty of money to buy weapons and they need more. Such weapons are a lot more important that visits by publicity-seeking politicians.
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