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Post by kungfuzu on Sept 27, 2023 10:16:49 GMT -8
A good indicator of China's real attitude as regards "green" energy and "climate change." Coal Imports Up
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Post by kungfuzu on Jan 12, 2024 8:56:43 GMT -8
Taiwanese go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new president and parliament.
I spoke to my friend in Taiwan today and he believes the results will be as follows.
Presidential race
DPP candidate 42-43% KMT candidate 30-32% TPP candidate abt. 18%
In Taiwan, the candidate with the most votes will win. A 50% + 1 vote majority is not necessary so the DPP candidate Lai should be the next president. Note, the DPP is the party which favors Taiwan's autonomy whereas the KMT, Chiang Kai Shek's old party is favorable to unification with China.
As to the new parliament, my friend believes it will be very difficult for the DPP to gain 50%, which is 56 seats. He believes the DPP will have the largest number of seats, between 50 and 55. As a result getting bills through the parliament will not be easy.
The polls will close at 4PM Taiwan time tomorrow Jan 13th and results should be known by about 8PM that night. Taiwan can accomplish in about 4 hours what it takes the USA weeks to do.
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Post by kungfuzu on Jan 13, 2024 11:04:12 GMT -8
Actual results
DPP 40.05% KMT 33.49% TPP 26.46%
William Lai of the DPP will be the next president of Taiwan
DPP 51 seats KMT 52 seats TPP 8 seats Others 2 seats
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Post by artraveler on Jan 24, 2024 8:26:01 GMT -8
I have heard variations of this for the last two years. I'm not convinced that Ms. Lopez is correct in her analysis, but I'm not sure she is entirely wrong. How does KFZ view it with his numerous connections to the East? www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-shrinking-xi-jinping-debt-real-estate-american-world-2024-1The clearest sign of this diminishment is China's worsening deflation problem. . .The consumer price index has declined for the past three months, the longest deflationary streak since 2009. . .China's primary problem, though, is debt, particularly in the real-estate sector, which makes up 25% to 35% of the country's GDP. . .Chinese people have 70% of assets in housing, so you can imagine the effect on confidence," Wei Yao, the chief economist at Société Générale, told me. "This is the factor why this deflation could be long-lasting."
Do not expect a shrinking China to be a shrinking violet. Outside loaning money, magnanimity has never been Beijing's strong suit. The slights that smarted when it was a growing superpower will only hurt more in shrunken stature. Xi will never let go of saving face. That's the nature of a one-man reign.
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Post by kungfuzu on Jan 24, 2024 10:02:02 GMT -8
I should first say that the further I read, the more difficult I found the piece to read. She could have cut the article in half and it would have been better. Even that would not have improved it that much. There is much I do not agree with, but will not go into all those points. Don't get me started on Bernanke and deflation.
That said, it is correct that the Chinese economy has been in difficulty for some time now. The proximate problem is the real estate bubble. Real estate makes up at least 30-33% of the Chinese economy. If one includes related industries such as steel, concrete, decorating, furniture, appliances, etc. it must be approaching 50% of the economy.
I would say that China's policies during the KFF fraud are the most immediate cause of the bust. Think of the tightest shutdown in the USA and multiply it several times and you have what China did. I recall seeing videos of Shanghai completely closed down. Nobody and nothing on the streets. For anyone who has traveled Asia, this was a stunning sight. I have been to Shanghai and it was always moving.
But in addition to the KFF measures, the real estate market in China was, to a large extent, fraudulent. Developments (whole cities) were built, not to provide homes for people, but for corrupt local officials as well as construction and financial interests to make money. For whatever reasons, East Asians are prone to piling funds into real estate as opposed into other areas. It is also the case that people putting up building and equipment often pad the costs in order to get as much money up front, not waiting years for returns. Since banks finance this, banks will be left holding the bag.
What is happening now in China happened in Japan in the late 1980s/early 1990s. Real estate in Japan was tremendously overvalued and as a result brought very low returns. As I recall, a 2% p.a. return was usual. This caused people to look for better options and since interest rates were low, many people took out loans with property as collateral and "invested" the money in the stock market. Of course the stock market got very hot, but eventually bust. The banks then started calling in the loans, which could not be paid. As I told people when this was happening (I had lived in Japan in 1979 and again in 1984-85 and visited the place something like 8-10 times a year up until the early 1990s) that every Japanese bank was, in fact bust. So it turned out and the government saved them all, one way or the other. It is only now, some 35 years (not 25 as the author states) that Japan appears to getting out of that particular mess.
There is little doubt that the Chinese government will have to bail out a lot of banks. There is little doubt that people are being hurt and seeing their savings go up in smoke. This is particularly bad in China as they have no real "welfare state" to fall back on. A family's home is it's asset.
Over the weekend, I was talking to a friend in Hongkong. We touched upon this subject and the question of freedom in present day China, and he reiterated something I have known for a decades, but few Westerners are cognizant of much less understand. The mas of the Chinese people are basically content with the present political situation. They know the CCP is corrupt and dictatorial, but it has brought relative order for over 70 years. Yes there were periods of disruption, but overall, particularly over the last 45 years, things have gotten much better in China. Given China's history, which the people are well aware of, better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
I could go on for chapters, but as I am not being paid to be a journalist (I will accept consulting fees though ) , I will wrap things up with this. Things are going seriously bad in China at the moment, but I do not see this developing into an imminent collapse. As I have long said, the Chinese people will outwork us all and live like dogs if it helps them get through today and build for the future. They can suffer a lot of privation and abuse and keep going. From all I have heard, there are struggles going on in the leadership and huge corruption in the PLA, government corruption being a perennial problem in Chinese history, but the Chinese people will keep doing what they do, which is survive.
I do not see China attacking any other country. It is not in their history to do so. One could say that they were aggressive in Tibet and Xinjiang, but these had historical backgrounds which I won't go into. I am no expert in those provinces in any case.
I don't believe Xi will attack Taiwan for a couple of reasons. First, it would be costly beyond imagination. Second, he cannot depend on his present-day military for a number of reasons. Third, if he did attack and the attack failed, I believe Xi would be toast within the CCP. That said, there is one scenario in which Taiwan could become a target and that is if Xi is forced into a corner from which he sees no escape unless something drastic happens. Then I would tell Taiwan to be on red alert.
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China
Feb 5, 2024 16:48:26 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Feb 5, 2024 16:48:26 GMT -8
If this is correct, given that real estate, and those industries related to it, comprise about 50% of its economy, this will be devastating for China. Demand to drop by 35-50%
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
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China
Feb 5, 2024 20:04:14 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Feb 5, 2024 20:04:14 GMT -8
So why the hell do these evil assholes need Taiwan? They can't fill the buildings they already have.
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Post by kungfuzu on Feb 6, 2024 7:11:10 GMT -8
As you know, this has nothing to do with need. Given the demographics of China, they will need fewer and fewer homes over the next few decades. The population is rapidly aging and will decrease significantly.
They want Taiwan because of face, economics and geography. Frankly, if they gained nothing from a takeover, they would still want it.
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Post by kungfuzu on Feb 6, 2024 19:49:25 GMT -8
In contrast to Germany, the People's Republic of China is not in thrall to the religion of green energy. Smoke Stacks Are Beautiful
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
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China
Feb 7, 2024 7:55:27 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Feb 7, 2024 7:55:27 GMT -8
Apple Computer and others have a lot of stuff manufactured in Communist China...all while claiming to be "green." Funny how their ethics are quite geographically situational.
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China
Feb 7, 2024 9:48:01 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Feb 7, 2024 9:48:01 GMT -8
Honesty and moral consistency are not virtues one generally finds in large corporations. That is unless one counts constant immorality as a being morally consistent.
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Post by kungfuzu on Feb 8, 2024 11:22:01 GMT -8
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,045
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China
Feb 8, 2024 19:20:50 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Feb 8, 2024 19:20:50 GMT -8
I don't think DEI has a filter for that.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 28, 2024 15:51:55 GMT -8
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 28, 2024 16:30:52 GMT -8
Yes, they understand that they must develop domestic production of armaments. Their armed forced are focused on defense, not offensive war, so they can concentrate on equipment which fits this requirement. Their first area of defense is the Strait of Taiwan and small fast vessels are well suited for conflict in such circumstances.
Their focus expands to closing off the Strait of Taiwan and making it difficult for China to get to the Philippines and S.E. Asia. and the rest of the South China Sea. For this they have developed their own submarine industry. This boat is their first domestically designed and produced sub. It was hellishly expensive to develop, but I understand the Japanese navy has said it is better than the present Japanese subs which are considered to be very good.
I discuss such things with my friend in Taiwan. He sees the Taiwanese Navy and Air Force as the more important arms of the military. They have the closest ties to the US military and the US trains a lot of their officers. He is less impressed with the Taiwanese Army because of its origins with Chiang Kai Sheik and the Whampoa Military Academy. The army is still too close to China.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 28, 2024 17:11:02 GMT -8
Cool sub. To build a first class sub like that puts one on a different level militarily. I’m not hoping for war but I’d love to see the commie navy destroyed and humiliated
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China
Apr 11, 2024 9:06:49 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Apr 11, 2024 9:06:49 GMT -8
I love this woman who puts that political whore, David Hogg, in his place. Coming from communist China, she understands what the 2nd Amendment means. I will never give up my guns
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
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China
Apr 11, 2024 10:25:40 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Apr 11, 2024 10:25:40 GMT -8
Hogg is one little snot I would risk jail time to punch him in the nose. What a complete waste of a person. He's not even male. Maybe there is such thing as "transgender" because there's no Y chromosome in that one.
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