Post by artraveler on Jan 9, 2020 12:33:06 GMT -8
Some thoughts on Iran—9 January 2020
Over the last ten days Iranian stand-ins have killed an American contractor in Iraq and attacked the American embassy in Iraq. The expected comeback from the US would be condemnation and fluff but no practical rejoinder. The answer from the Trump administration was to kill the leader of the revolutionary guard, who planned the attack on the embassy, and was planning more. It has been reported that he was also responsible for the planning of the attack on the embassy in Libya.
The reaction from Iran was to launch missiles at two bases in the Iraqi desert, killing no one and causing limited damage. American surveillance and human intelligence assets inside Iran warned of the attacks. American military in the theater spun up ready to respond if necessary. In spite of the hysteria from the media there was no major confrontation. President Trump ordered a stand-down. Iran claimed they had revenge for the killing of the general and all could return to normal. However, have we returned to status-quo?
There are three explanations for the Iranian massacre of sand:
1. Iranian technology is not capable of hitting a target in the desert with known coordinates. This doesn’t seem likely as these same missiles were used to strike a Saudi oilfield not long ago.
2. The attack and the miss was on purpose, to avoid killing Americans and prompt a massive American response. This is the position of most of the world. It’s comforting to think the mullahs are rational actors, but they are not.
3. This was a head fake. Intended to lull the public and political leaders back into the usual stupor of the last 40 years. In effect, dangle a shiny object and the press and intellectual elites will follow slavishly along.
This is merely an adjustment of strategy by the mullahs. The basic premise of the regime remains the same, cripple America until they can develop their nuclear weapons and destroy Israel with those weapons; different song, same tune.
This strategy has been proven through four administrations, in Korea and Iran. It has worked with Republican and Democrats. What they have not counted on was Donald Trump. The killing of the general and the spin-up of our military was an unintended consequence. The mullahs were shocked, America has, in the past, just gave a head nod and a wink to Iran as they worked their goal of Islamic domination. The last thing they thought would happen was a credible threat from the US of regime obliteration.
It is basically, the same strategy followed by the USSR and US during the Cold War, that of plausible deniability and one that works with nuclear armed powers. Proxies, ours and theirs could engage in warfare with both sides supported by the other great power. Everyone knows who the prime players are but gives status to the proxies as independent actors. At best, it is a mutually agreed on lie.
President Trump has changed the rules of the game. Iran will be held to account when they attack allied assets anywhere in the world. This is the same strategy Israel has been following since the 1990s. Only time will tell if this adjustment will work, but right now President Trump is in the driver’s seat, but just because Iran is quiet does not mean they are not planning further attacks against the US and Israel. Remember, the basic rule of dealing with lunacy, you cannot have a rational conversation with someone who has reached their position irrationally.
Over the last ten days Iranian stand-ins have killed an American contractor in Iraq and attacked the American embassy in Iraq. The expected comeback from the US would be condemnation and fluff but no practical rejoinder. The answer from the Trump administration was to kill the leader of the revolutionary guard, who planned the attack on the embassy, and was planning more. It has been reported that he was also responsible for the planning of the attack on the embassy in Libya.
The reaction from Iran was to launch missiles at two bases in the Iraqi desert, killing no one and causing limited damage. American surveillance and human intelligence assets inside Iran warned of the attacks. American military in the theater spun up ready to respond if necessary. In spite of the hysteria from the media there was no major confrontation. President Trump ordered a stand-down. Iran claimed they had revenge for the killing of the general and all could return to normal. However, have we returned to status-quo?
There are three explanations for the Iranian massacre of sand:
1. Iranian technology is not capable of hitting a target in the desert with known coordinates. This doesn’t seem likely as these same missiles were used to strike a Saudi oilfield not long ago.
2. The attack and the miss was on purpose, to avoid killing Americans and prompt a massive American response. This is the position of most of the world. It’s comforting to think the mullahs are rational actors, but they are not.
3. This was a head fake. Intended to lull the public and political leaders back into the usual stupor of the last 40 years. In effect, dangle a shiny object and the press and intellectual elites will follow slavishly along.
This is merely an adjustment of strategy by the mullahs. The basic premise of the regime remains the same, cripple America until they can develop their nuclear weapons and destroy Israel with those weapons; different song, same tune.
This strategy has been proven through four administrations, in Korea and Iran. It has worked with Republican and Democrats. What they have not counted on was Donald Trump. The killing of the general and the spin-up of our military was an unintended consequence. The mullahs were shocked, America has, in the past, just gave a head nod and a wink to Iran as they worked their goal of Islamic domination. The last thing they thought would happen was a credible threat from the US of regime obliteration.
It is basically, the same strategy followed by the USSR and US during the Cold War, that of plausible deniability and one that works with nuclear armed powers. Proxies, ours and theirs could engage in warfare with both sides supported by the other great power. Everyone knows who the prime players are but gives status to the proxies as independent actors. At best, it is a mutually agreed on lie.
President Trump has changed the rules of the game. Iran will be held to account when they attack allied assets anywhere in the world. This is the same strategy Israel has been following since the 1990s. Only time will tell if this adjustment will work, but right now President Trump is in the driver’s seat, but just because Iran is quiet does not mean they are not planning further attacks against the US and Israel. Remember, the basic rule of dealing with lunacy, you cannot have a rational conversation with someone who has reached their position irrationally.
