Iran

I haven't been keeping up on this issue. VDH hat a perspective on this in U.S Holds All the Cards in the Showdown with Iran.

There's a part of me that says "Let the Europeans finish running this little experiment that the Iranians are reasonable people who just want to make a few needed power plants and have no ill intentions." It might serve them right to have London, Paris, or Berlin nuked.

But letting that happen obviously wouldn't be in our interest. Letting the barbarians rule the world is never in the interest of decent people. That probably most Europeans are no longer decent people makes this equation all the more difficult.

One of the advantages of superpower status is there are more options available. Military action is always on the table. Europe has fewer and less viable options. In spite of the size of the EU they do not have the ability to conduct a war that far from their home soil. We are the only country in the world that conduct war on an international scale.

I personally would like nothing better to turn Tehrasn into glass, They declared war on us in 78 and the status has not changed, but Carter's failure to respond eliminated the high ground. I think VDH has it right, we hold all the cards.

I suspect the administration is ascertaining a fair amount of tactical information from the way Iran has moved assets over the last day or two. It is always better to work with more knowledge and surprise than do what everyone expects.

One of the problems Trump has with this situation is that he has taken on too many big issues at the same time. For example, while China may or may not have known about Iran's plan to shoot down the drone, you can bet that they are figuring out ways to take advantage of the present tensions in the Persian Gulf. In case readers are not following things in the Far East, China's Premier Xi is visiting Kim in North Korea. This is the first time a Chinese premier has visited N. Korea in about 15 years, if I remember correctly. You can be sure they are discussing their thoughts about Trump and how to counter his/America's effect on them.

Last night, I heard some ex-colonel who is "no war at no time" say that Iran would declare all-out war if the USA retaliated even a bit. Even thought I am all for the USA being less involved in putting troops on the ground around the world, I do not buy his reasoning. Still,Trump is in a difficult position.

Given the change in USA energy production, the Middle East has become a much less important geopolitical area for us. Unfortunately, it is still very important for Europe and Asia, i.e. about 2/3rds of the world economy. The USA will not/cannot simply stand by and watch, as the economic disruptions would be huge if the Middle East blew up.

Let's take one scenario as an example. Say oil jumped up to US$120/bbl and shipments to China were cut in half. This would cause huge pain in China and there would be tremendous social unrest. As I have said before, the only time China would really scare me is when she has so many domestic problems that she will have to create international problems to divert the Chinese public's view from what's going on at home.

For historical and emotional reasons, the easiest target would be Taiwan. If China were to attack Taiwan, this would likely bring in the USA as Taiwan's defender. Then Japan might also get involved. Such a thing would be many times more problematic than what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

I am not saying it would necessarily happen, but it is one of the many possible realistic scenarios which must be taken into account in international relations. Iranian and Chinese problems may not, at first, appear to be intertwined, but they are. Such things make international relations very tricky.

While true, I am sure you can imagine the overwhelmingly negative reaction which would result from the whole the world, including our allies. We have never been willing to go there for a reason. I doubt even Trump will go there.