Post by artraveler on Dec 28, 2023 16:28:57 GMT -8
What does 2024 hold for investors?
“It’s the economy stupid”. James Carvel, as toxic as his personality is, has it about 70% correct. 2024 is an election year. The party in power, (democrat) will attempt to manipulate the macro economy to convince people that Biden’s economic plan, (if there is one) is working. This means that regardless of the needs of the economy interest rates will be forced down. Lower interest rates will stimulate housing and home sales including markets in home appliances, this should be good for Home Depot and other home improvement retailers. Despite the poisonous relationship, big energy and the Administration will come to terms, for a short time. Expect the price of oil to come down as the government will allow more drilling for a short time, expect the price of oil to go down, perhaps as low as $50 barrel, making investments in companies like Conoco Phillips and other energy companies potentially excellent short term investments.
The Biden Administration is going to pull back from the radical DEI programs in employment. Not due to revelation of the fecklessness of the policy but due to political realities. Mom and pop don’t like DEI in employment or in their schools. This will not be a permeant pull back but a temporary pause. If a democrat candidate is elected in November expect DEI to return with a vengeance.
Internationally, the administration will continue to search, without success, to find solution to the war in Ukraine and make nice with Iran. The cold war with the CCP will continue, although some more companies will continue to leave manufacturing in China in favor of Taiwan, Japan, and Vietnam. Apple may be one of the leaders in leaving China. Israel will successfully eliminate Hamas from Gaza. However, Hizballah will keep pressure on the IDF. The Israeli tech center will continue to develop and give Silicon Valley a run for the money. Israeli tech in medicine will come closer to solving the persistent medical problems of Western life.
China will profit from the lower price of oil, as they are a net importer of oil. Russia, on the other hand, will suffer from lower oil prices. Lower oil prices may force Russia to come the peace terms with Ukraine. Biden will attempt to take credit for any peace deal made because of a settlement of the war. Very little progress will be made to close the Southern border, although the administration will make cosmetic changes without significant changes.
The positive natures of the 2024 will not last if any democrat is elected president. Antifa and BLM/Communist riots will erupt if Trump is elected and possibly even if he is not but if the senate flips to republican control. The house should remain in republican hands; however, the majority will remain small in both the house and senate. If any democrat is elected president all the positive changes are only temporary. Any republican should have enough support to continue the growth of the economy. A Trump election will guarantee continuance of the positive investment outlook for the next four years. A democrat success will clash the economy and bring on a depression. Be prepared to sell all investments in November. Keep your finger on the button.
“It’s the economy stupid”. James Carvel, as toxic as his personality is, has it about 70% correct. 2024 is an election year. The party in power, (democrat) will attempt to manipulate the macro economy to convince people that Biden’s economic plan, (if there is one) is working. This means that regardless of the needs of the economy interest rates will be forced down. Lower interest rates will stimulate housing and home sales including markets in home appliances, this should be good for Home Depot and other home improvement retailers. Despite the poisonous relationship, big energy and the Administration will come to terms, for a short time. Expect the price of oil to come down as the government will allow more drilling for a short time, expect the price of oil to go down, perhaps as low as $50 barrel, making investments in companies like Conoco Phillips and other energy companies potentially excellent short term investments.
The Biden Administration is going to pull back from the radical DEI programs in employment. Not due to revelation of the fecklessness of the policy but due to political realities. Mom and pop don’t like DEI in employment or in their schools. This will not be a permeant pull back but a temporary pause. If a democrat candidate is elected in November expect DEI to return with a vengeance.
Internationally, the administration will continue to search, without success, to find solution to the war in Ukraine and make nice with Iran. The cold war with the CCP will continue, although some more companies will continue to leave manufacturing in China in favor of Taiwan, Japan, and Vietnam. Apple may be one of the leaders in leaving China. Israel will successfully eliminate Hamas from Gaza. However, Hizballah will keep pressure on the IDF. The Israeli tech center will continue to develop and give Silicon Valley a run for the money. Israeli tech in medicine will come closer to solving the persistent medical problems of Western life.
China will profit from the lower price of oil, as they are a net importer of oil. Russia, on the other hand, will suffer from lower oil prices. Lower oil prices may force Russia to come the peace terms with Ukraine. Biden will attempt to take credit for any peace deal made because of a settlement of the war. Very little progress will be made to close the Southern border, although the administration will make cosmetic changes without significant changes.
The positive natures of the 2024 will not last if any democrat is elected president. Antifa and BLM/Communist riots will erupt if Trump is elected and possibly even if he is not but if the senate flips to republican control. The house should remain in republican hands; however, the majority will remain small in both the house and senate. If any democrat is elected president all the positive changes are only temporary. Any republican should have enough support to continue the growth of the economy. A Trump election will guarantee continuance of the positive investment outlook for the next four years. A democrat success will clash the economy and bring on a depression. Be prepared to sell all investments in November. Keep your finger on the button.
