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China
Sept 26, 2022 14:57:36 GMT -8
Post by artraveler on Sept 26, 2022 14:57:36 GMT -8
What do we really know about China?
1. There are a lot of people 1 billion + 2. For reasons passing understanding our government has subsidized the expansion of of the Chinese economy to the detriment of our own 3. The PLA and PLAN, PlANAF are formidable military opponents, are they any better than the Russians? 4. Taiwan (the breakaway province) presents a threat to the CCP as do the consensual governments of Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the United States. 5. The CCP has a long term plan for domination of their part of Asia and we really don't have a clue what it is. 6. Xi styles himself as a modern day emperor of China 7. Without the notorious and open support of American Democrat Party China would not have achieved the level of prosperity it now has, although much of it is built on a house of cards. 8. The the house of cards begins to fall the consequences will effect the world's economies 9. How close is the fall?
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,099
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China
Sept 26, 2022 15:25:11 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Sept 26, 2022 15:25:11 GMT -8
All I know is that if this were happening in Luxemberg, nobody would give a shit. But China is a BFC. And when they burp, we all may get indigestion.
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Post by kungfuzu on Sept 28, 2022 8:09:58 GMT -8
I spoke to my friend in Taiwan last night and discussed what is happening in China. Like the rest of us, he says it is unclear as to what is happening. There are a number of rumors, all of which could be false. One is that the compound in which the top CCP members live has been closed tight. My friend liked the one in which a bunch of old generals confronted Xi about his bellicose comments about Taiwan. These generals, apparently, felt he was leading the country into danger like Putin in Russia, and they want to avoid it. Who knows? One piece of information which was not a rumor was very interesting. A military convoy something like 60-70 km long entered Beijing over the last days. This would mean something like 50,000 soldiers drove into the city. The most important thing for Taiwan is the fact that there has been no buildup or movement of soldiers across the Taiwan Strait. Doesn't look like an invasion is imminent.
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Post by artraveler on Sept 28, 2022 8:34:56 GMT -8
This is what is called the fog of war. Make no mistake war is upon us, whether we wish it or not.
I wonder if there is any connection to the events in the Baltic and the events with the CCP? Back before it joined the Girl Scouts CIA had assets that could communicate the what, why and who in Russia (USSR) and China. Now days I'm not sure they can find their own butts with a road map.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,099
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Post by Brad Nelson on Sept 29, 2022 6:54:38 GMT -8
That certainly sounds plausible.
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Post by kungfuzu on Sept 29, 2022 10:03:51 GMT -8
Another rumor is that Xi's wife and family have left for the USA. Again, who knows?
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Post by artraveler on Sept 29, 2022 11:19:47 GMT -8
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Post by kungfuzu on Sept 29, 2022 11:41:07 GMT -8
Your guess would be correct. This happened around the time Pelosi visited Taiwan. The Reds put on a huge show, with all sorts of military equipment. They fired thousands of missiles along the coast over a period of a few days. My friend in Taiwan told me that it was so beautiful that Taiwanese were booking boat cruises in the Taiwan Strait in order to sail closer and watch the show. Just like New Year's Day fireworks.
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China
Oct 6, 2022 13:37:57 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Oct 6, 2022 13:37:57 GMT -8
More confirmation that our elections are rotten and that foreign players are part of the reason for this, and I don't mean Russia. Election info sent to China Let me say it again, using computers to vote is insane or malicious. Our elections look all nice and shiny on the surface, but they are worse than third world in truth. Gimcrack would be a polite adjective for them.
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,099
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China
Oct 6, 2022 15:12:05 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Oct 6, 2022 15:12:05 GMT -8
It's funny. I just signed a USN document today that said I would not provide or use telecommunication equipment or services from: Huawei, ZTC, Hytera, Hangzhou, or Dahua.
It sounds as if the USN is more discriminating in who they deal with than whoever is running the elections in various places.
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China
Oct 6, 2022 15:21:35 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Oct 6, 2022 15:21:35 GMT -8
I guess they are, but even they are years behind the curve. Better late than never, I suppose. But my feeling is that these people are more about covering their legal asses than protecting the secrets of the USA.
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China
Oct 10, 2022 18:47:00 GMT -8
Post by kungfuzu on Oct 10, 2022 18:47:00 GMT -8
I can only suppose that Musk is doing the bidding of the PRC as he is so dependent on them for money. Maybe he needs help financing the Twitter deal. Or maybe they threatened to do something to the Tesla production in China. His idea is so stupid that he could not believe what he is saying. Taiwan should give the PRC a "little bit" of control and nothing will go wrong. Yeah, just like nothing went wrong in Hongkong. Hell, the deal the PRC did with Hongkong, regarding the 1997 return, was basically a message to Taiwan that "see you can join us and everything will be hunky-dory." It took about 22 years for that to be shown false. That is longer than I had expected, but the truth still came out. Musk the running dog of the CCP
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,099
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Post by Brad Nelson on Oct 11, 2022 6:35:26 GMT -8
I believe it was an old Eastern (U.S.) sage who said:
Musk didn't get to where he is by being shy. But he needs someone to whisper into his ear as he parades his billionaire influence, "All glory is fleeting."
The temptation by these billionaires to over-estimate their wisdom outside of their field of expertise is too great for most. If he has motives other than that, the motives are either evil or naive.
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Post by artraveler on Oct 11, 2022 11:06:23 GMT -8
I'm not sure Musk is that naive but he did suggest it. There must be a 1000 reasons why that won't work all of them pointed directly at the CCP and I think Musk must know that. Unless he actually shows a preference for the CCP I think he is just playing politics.
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Post by kungfuzu on Oct 16, 2022 13:07:50 GMT -8
I was talking to my friend in Taiwan this morning about this new order. We both agree this is the most serious restriction that the USA has ever put on the Chinese semi-conductor industry. He says that it hasn't been mentioned in China yet. Contrary to what the article says, my friend thinks this will just about kill the Chinese semi-conductor industry if all those Chinese-Americans opt to leave China. Americans cannot work for Chinese semi-conductor firms This, and more, should have been done 20-to-30 years ago.
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China
Oct 16, 2022 15:12:11 GMT -8
Post by artraveler on Oct 16, 2022 15:12:11 GMT -8
This is a good step and I agree it should have been done years ago. A bigger step is to restrict the number of red and postgrad Chinese students that are allowed into our universities, especially research universities. The flow of stolen American technology going to China is immense. Chinese students before they leave the mainland are required to become defecto intelligence agents for the CCP. Currently there are about 250,000 Chinese students in the US and about 2,500 American students in China. We should demand equity in numbers and send all but 2,500 Chinese students packing back to China, as it is unlikely that they will ever allow, or our students require, an additional 247,500 grad and postgrad students.
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Post by kungfuzu on Oct 16, 2022 18:24:00 GMT -8
Unfortunately, this will never happen as it is foreign students and Pell Grants which have made American "higher education" such a racket. According to U.S. News and World Report, there were more that 1 million foreign students in the USA during 2019-20. It has dropped off some since the KFF. If one is conservative and calculates that each of these students pays US$20,000 fees per year, one can see that our institutes of higher learning are raking in over US$20 billion a year. Not to mention the hundreds of millions or billions that the Chinese government, in one form or another, plies these schools with. Does anyone think academia is going to give that up without a fight?
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Brad Nelson
Administrator
עַבְדְּךָ֔ אֶת־ הַתְּשׁוּעָ֥ה הַגְּדֹלָ֖ה הַזֹּ֑את
Posts: 11,099
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China
Oct 16, 2022 18:39:48 GMT -8
Post by Brad Nelson on Oct 16, 2022 18:39:48 GMT -8
I will not pretend to understand all the political and economic aspects of this. I thus leave myself open to criticism of being a simpleton.
But this is why Ukraine matters. I understand that Biden may be as corrupt as Zelenskyy. But the overall game is: Shall military power be the game-changer over and above free trade?
There is probably no bigger and clearer example of playing footsie with the devil than Apple Computer. The manufacturing capabilities of China are large, as is the market for the finished products. The question is: Is there a moral equation significant enough that Apple might move manufacturing to Ireland, India, or wherever instead of enduring that status quo of empowering the devil?
"Want" trumps "right." We deal with devils because it makes monetary sense. But the inclinations of both China and Russia challenge us (and especially libertarians) to measure the value of "right" and "just" in contrast to prevailing economic pragmatism. Maybe some simple and clear "should nots" emerge from this.
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Post by artraveler on Nov 2, 2022 5:18:42 GMT -8
A few logical thoughts about invading Taiwan. www.19fortyfive.com/2022/11/can-china-invade-and-conquer-taiwan-study-ukraine/It is 110 miles from the mainland. That is five times the length of the English Channel. This means a Chinese invasion would require an enormous invasion force, on the scale of the allied D-Day effort of 1944. Amphibious operations are notoriously difficult. Successful ones are rare in world history, and China’s military has never done anything like this before. The logistical planning alone, if we take D-Day as a model, would require years. The invasion fleet would be gargantuan, making it nearly impossible to hide, and so giving Taiwan much lead time to prepare. it is likely that Taiwanese and US airpower could sink landing craft en route. And these invaders who did survive the crossing would face hostile beach landings and high mountains in the island’s east where defenders could hold out at length,
In short, it will be much harder to take Taiwan than Xi and the Chinese media admit.
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Post by kungfuzu on Nov 2, 2022 8:27:10 GMT -8
We have touched on this in the past. The Taiwan Strait presents a huge problem, for the Reds, but there are many others as well. There are very few spots on the Taiwanese coast suitable for an amphibious landing. The two major areas that I can recall are, one in the far north around Keelung, and the second is in the far south down from Kaohsiung. It is my understanding that the Taiwanese have both well covered. I have been up and down the West coast of Taiwan something like ten times as I traveled from Taipei to Kaohsiung, and believe me there aren't many if any spots where a force could land and accumulate troops to push inward. There is nothing like the beaches of Normandy which go on for miles. As to a landing on the East coast, from what I have seen, I believe it would be even more difficult. There is a mountain range running north to south for basically the whole distance of Taiwan. It lies more in the East and East coast. Even if the Reds could land on the East coast, they would have a hell of a time getting across the mountains to the West, which is where most of the Taiwanese live and all the industry sits. In addition to that, the Taiwanese have build numerous bunkers, caves and weapons depots inside of the mountains. They have rocket launchers in the caves, artillery even jets which can be rolled out. Getting over those mountains would be difficult for the Reds. My friend in Taiwan, and I, have been discussing this question for some time and he confirms the Taiwanese are not terribly worried about an invasion. Taiwan has a big advantage in any such scenario as they are in a defensive position and do not need all sorts of offensive weapons and huge armies to assault fixed positions. What they need are missiles, more missiles, boats and drones to sink the Red armada attacking the country, artillery and tanks to cover any approaches to beaches, an expanded air force, air defense systems and more electronic warfare equipment. China might, in the end, be able to conquer Taiwan, but it would be enormously costly for them to do so. I still believe that a blockade of some sort is the most likely method the Reds would use, if they decide to take the big step. Frankly, I wish the American government and media would shut up about "how dangerous" the situation in Taiwan is. It is as if they are trying to goad China into doing something.
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