Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 12, 2020 17:53:44 GMT -8
Unless this virus escaped from a Chines bio-lab, I'm finding it difficult to call this a debacle, per se. I think the over-reaction to it is the debacle.
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kungfuzu
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 12, 2020 19:37:26 GMT -8
Exactly what I meant. The virus itself looks like it is not terribly deadly, but the fallout is and will be yuge.
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Post by artraveler on Mar 12, 2020 20:07:05 GMT -8
I went to a local Walmart grocery today. Even here in Arkansas where there is more common sense than the entire state of California, there was a sense of frenzied buying. Canned and instant soups, rice and some breads were either gone or very noticeably low. However, the big surprise was in the paper goods aisle. There was no toilet paper, paper towels, napkins, paper plates or wet wipes. In the next aisle there was no hand sanitizer. This is crazy hysteria that has no rational basis. I suppose when this cools off in about a month these same people will still be working off the excess supply. BTW Amazon has lots of all of the above items and an order of $35 gets you free shipping.
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 12, 2020 20:20:25 GMT -8
Okay. And I totally agree with you that the cure is way worse than the disease. I've already used that line with some people. Your royalty check is in the mail.
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 12, 2020 20:29:09 GMT -8
Thanks for the report from the front lines, Artler. My younger brother was in Winco today he said he saw a bit of shopocalyptic buying. As someone mentioned during all this, perhaps for every loser there is a winner. An economist talking to Dennis Prager today noted that businesses that use a lot of petroleum products (for transportation, manufacturing, etc.) will be loving it.
And Kimberly-Clark (or whomever) probably has factories working overtime on sanitized wipes, etc.
Amazon is a great place to purchase stuff. I leech off my sister-in-laws Amazon Prime family account. So you get free shipping (“free” in quotation marks) on about everything. (I think they raise the prices a little to Prime customers to help pay for the “free” shipping.)
In fact, rather than running out to the mall the other day, I ordered a couple shirts, sweatshirt, and other essentials online. And it wasn’t because I was afraid to go to the store. I’m not. I figure I’ve had so much crap the last few years, I’m probably immune anyway.
But retail places have become such a pain…getting through the checkout line mainly.
I never thought the stock market would drop like it has. And I don’t know when the time to buy is. But I’m guessing now is a pretty good time if you can hold long-term. But I’m guessing the lifespan of this current hysteria is 3 more weeks, tops. Once people realize that these idiot politicians are shutting down the world because of yet another normal flu season, we should see some push-back.
However, if people start dropping like flies and it’s 1347 all over again, then all bets are off. But I don’t expect that. I don’t think from the data we have right now (with reasonable extrapolation and guesswork) that the death rate is any worse than any normal flu.
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kungfuzu
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 12, 2020 20:37:32 GMT -8
If I may be so presumptuous as to offer some advice. If you are thinking about getting back into the market, do not do so until there is a definite and clear upward trend. We may be near the bottom, but we may not be. Trying to buy at the bottom or sell at the top is a mug's game. Give away a little bit of profit for security.
I hope you are right as this is hurting business. But I have seen at least four major crashes in my life and they don't turn around so quickly. It generally takes some months before the panic subsides. These things feed on themselves. Good news e.g. the fall in crude oil prices is seen, at least short term, as a negative. All sorts of peripheral problems seem to pop up and every wrong or mistake made over the previous few years is added to the already shaky situation. It's like people just look for a reason to panic. And with today's computer-driven trading, market moves can often be even more drastic.
A sign of the silliness which is taking hold, is this afternoon, the Plano Independent School District extended Spring Break to include all of next week. What exactly another week off from school is going to do to stop the Wuhan-virus, I can't say.
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Post by artraveler on Mar 12, 2020 20:39:00 GMT -8
Damn, damn, damn, Oaklawn is closed for spectators until further notice because of this crap. Wife and I were spending the weekend in Hot Springs. They are cancelling classes at schools all over the state including the U of A. I have loaded all my weapons waiting for crowds of marauding pro-crypto Nazis. Who the F**k do these people think they are?
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 12, 2020 20:40:24 GMT -8
Good points, Mr. Kung. I'm not a speculator. But I do think there are going to be a lot of people profiting (and deservedly so) from the panic out there. They'll be getting some real bargains.
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 12, 2020 20:42:31 GMT -8
They think they are in charge. And they think that a significant percentage of the population (85%?) are pansies. I don't think they're wrong. Sorry about your racing weekend going bust. I'll keep posting notes on great movies you can find on Amazon Prime.
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kungfuzu
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 12, 2020 20:50:11 GMT -8
There will be as this is always the case. I mentioned my colleague who bought put options on airline stock, casino stock, crude oil and other things. He is making a killing now.
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Post by timothylane on Mar 12, 2020 20:57:48 GMT -8
The panic-buying of toilet paper is an indication of how bad the hysteria is. People start stocking up in case they want to avoid stores for a while. And as it starts disappearing, other people buy it lest it be unavailable when they need it (which is actually a rational fear). This will lead to increased production of toilet paper -- which will stay on store shelves a while because so many people will have stockpiled so much.
And it doesn't have anything to do with the Wuhan flu itself, unless people are afraid of diarrhea attacks.
Meanwhile, MLB has halted spring training and delayed the opening of the season. Trump has canceled 3 upcoming rallies, which was probably inevitable. They might have been banned as large gatherings already are in California and Washington, and possibly elsewhere if he didn't.
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kungfuzu
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 12, 2020 21:08:42 GMT -8
This article has some interesting info on why the situation in Italy is so bad.
Damn it. Trump must open our borders as it is only fair that the whole world share in the misery brought on by the Chinese Commies.
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 13, 2020 7:45:17 GMT -8
Generally one is saying very little if one can’t be proven wrong. My hunch is the same as this Chris Stigall guy at Townhall in his article: Is Anyone Asking Questions During Coronavirus?I don’t know this to be the case. Maybe this is 1347 all over again. But I suspect the truth is much closer to “flu” than “black death." This article suggests there is an incentive for the CDC to hyperventilate. His most important point is probably: At another forum, way back when, I remember questioning the hysteria of “global warming” (now called “climate change,” which can never be disproved and thus is not science). I was accused of forwarding propaganda from the oil companies. When it becomes socially incorrect to question our nanny masters, we are no longer citizens of a republic, we are domesticated sheep. That doesn’t mean it’s okay to forward every half-baked conspiracy theory. But it should not cause someone to be shunned and socially ostracized simply for questioning the status quo. But that’s where we are now. And you all know it. You know your jobs could be in peril if you question that some dude dressed up as a woman isn’t actually a woman. If you question “climate change.” If you question the inherent victimhood status of “people of color.” If you question that you have “white privilege.” If you question that the world should reorder itself and men be demeaned and demonized just to try to push women up through the door to “equality.” One of the funniest and most ironic lines of the 60’s (who are at the heart of the deep social rot of society) was the throw-away line “question authority.” Can anyone say there is any honor or respect for doing so unless you are questioning anything that isn’t specifically forwarded as leftist/liberal goals or ideas? This whole series of never-ending dramas and hysteria show that we are not a healthy electorate….and it has nothing to do with a flu bug.
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 13, 2020 7:58:02 GMT -8
Here’s a reply to a friend of mine elsewhere:
I think we’re headed there. The fact is, the greatest opportunity for the Left to re-order society and gain complete control of people’s lives is the excuse that one is doing so for their “health.”
I think it’s highly likely that we will morph into a dystopian society where it will be mandatory for everyone’s smart device (whether an iPhone or something government-issued) to keep track of whatever transmutable diseases they are carrying.
Again, keep in mind that there are men dressed up as women who compete (and win!) in women’s sports. It’s becoming more and more difficult to pooh-pooh something as utterly ridiculous.
You can already see the writing on the wall. Who can object to tracking people who might transmit a virus, especially if it can be said (and it usually can) that the virus is (or can be) responsible for thousands of deaths? Who will stand up and say “No! We are free individuals in a great republic, not domesticated sheep in a nanny state.”
Very few will resist. Very few are resisting right now. You won’t need to go to Netflix to find the screenplay in your head. I think it will be here soon enough in reality.
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kungfuzu
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 13, 2020 8:07:46 GMT -8
And not only the CDC, but they certainly do have the incentive. More funding is the goal of all such agencies. I was also wondering how much the need to believe one is saving the world motivates some of these people.
The media have a couple of motives, gain eyeballs and undermine Trump.
Many of the bureaucrats in schools and elsewhere are likely merely lemmings covering their asses.
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Post by timothylane on Mar 13, 2020 8:08:54 GMT -8
The people who said "question authority" probably didn't anticipate being the ones questioned. But while it's easy to be too hostile, a certain healthy skepticism is in order with anyone in authority. They're only human, after all, and thus fallible even aside from the corruption enabled by power.
Perhaps the CDC, which botched up on preparing test kits for the Wuhan flu, deserves it most. Back in the Slick Willie era, they proclaimed violence a disease spread by bullets. By that logic, there was no violence in the millennia before guns came in (unless you count the occasional sling), and even in more modern times Jack the Ripper was a non-violent criminal. It was probably the single most egregious claim by a scientist we've ever seen.
The problem is that in addition to being doctors and scientists, they're also people with political views, and obviously on the left side of things. So they wanted to start declaiming on social policy, and the best way to do that was to find some way to link that to their actual job (dealing with infectious diseases). They continue to do so, if perhaps not so foolishly.
I haven't really trusted the CDC ever since.
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 13, 2020 8:12:49 GMT -8
If I understand things correctly, this is being done in China right now. It appears to be one of the main things they have done which has enabled then to contain things in Wuhan.
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 13, 2020 8:51:55 GMT -8
You’re right. Probably not. And, in restrospect, what is obviously implied in that slogan is “We know best.”
But “question authority” comes off better, even better than “Trust no one over the age of 30.” But they both say the same thing: We know best, out with the old, in the new. “Dissent is the highest form of patriotism” . . . as long as you understand that we mean dissent from anything white, Western, traditional, hetero, Christian, capitalist, or manly.
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Brad Nelson
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Post by Brad Nelson on Mar 13, 2020 8:54:19 GMT -8
I've not heard that before. Given that Jack's victims were women, there must be one hell of a convoluted trail of Leftist logic to get to that statement.
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kungfuzu
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Post by kungfuzu on Mar 13, 2020 9:16:49 GMT -8
More info confirming the USA is handling this situation better than elsewhere. Look at the numbersTrump and his reps need to get out in front of this and call out those who blame him for a "disaster" yet also demand open borders.
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