Russia

Good analysis  of how we got to this point. I think also  that Russia has a large inferiority complex brought on by condescension of the west, especially England. Putin is making noises like an ignored child whose toys are always hand-me-downs. A large part of how we got here is exactly as the author said, shame of being humiliated by the west, more Europe than America, but still there never the less.

So what is the solution? I have given this some thought over the last 30 years and my original thought still, I think has validity. Offer Russia full membership in NATO. Since the time of Peter the Great Russia has always sought to be seen as a European power. Even during the Soviet era this was the case. You say the Russians are thuggish, are they more thuggish than Turkey? More criminal that East Germany was? Less restrained than Greece? What better way to pull Russia into the western fold against China than extend NATO  all the way to the Pacific?

A translation of Putin's speech today, to the Russian people. Some very interesting points, particularly the ones regarding his broaching Russia's joining NATO with Bill Clinton.  If this is true, and I believe it very well could be as it made since the fall of the USSR, then it is a clear sign that the USA has no interest in living peacefully with Russia. It has been long known that the USA wants to break up Russia into a number of different states, each which would be easier to control than a unified nation. Putin has stood in the way of this. 

Putin's speech to Russia

It seems the American people are more subtle that many think. They can differentiate between countries which are important to our national interest and those which aren't. 


Taiwan yes, the Ukraine no

George Kennen on the expansion of NATO.

"Expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era. Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations; and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking."

This is fundamentally a problem we have to thank GH Bush and Bill Clinton, although GW Bush and Obama bear some of the responsibility. 

I am afraid you may be right. Everyone is concerned that the Biden administration is showing weakness, which will temp foreign powers to take advantage of a weak USA. I believe it is worse than that. From the moment Biden took office, it has been unclear as to who is in charge. Is Biden in charge? If not, then who? Is the executive branch being run as separate fiefs, all pulling in different directions without coordination? 

That is more dangerous than weakness. It shows the government is in chaos and that no one is actually in charge and can make quick decisions in times of crisis. We, in the USA, are really screwed, but many countries overseas, will be in worse ship due to our government pretending it will help while leaving them twisting in the wind.  

The Biden administration is going a long way to destroy America's credibility in the world. The monumental fuck up in Afghanistan and now this mess in the Ukraine. Two very different scenarios, and each requiring its own special type of incompetence. It's almost like there was a plan to do this. 

Large parts of NATO is very much a paper tiger. The initial news reports, which are almost always wrong, have the Russians as the enemy. The true enemy is in our White House. 

The link is to a good review of a recent book on the breakup of the Soviet Union. Longish, but worth a read. 

Gorbachev didn't know what he was doing  

A couple of interesting quotes from the article. 

This is what Russia has been demanding for years. Might have saved a lot of lives if NATO had taken this position earlier. Again, criminals and fools rule the world.  They are too often one and the same in the West. Putin may be a criminal, but he is no fool. And we have Joe Biden and his coterie of clowns running our government.  Is this the result of decades of affirmative action? 10th raters floating to the top like scum on a pond. 


USA willing to accept Ukrainian neutrality

I wonder if this is disinformation. Ukraine doesn't seem to be the pushover Putin thought it would be. KIA and MIA figures are subject to doubt but it does seem that the Russians are taking a large number of KIA. The Ukraine ministry of defense is saying 3000 a figure I estimate is overblown by 3 while Ukraine is saying only 200 KIA a figure under estimated by 3 at least. We may not know the actual cost for months, if ever. 

Estimates were they would take Kvie by today that hasn't happened and there is growing unrest in Moscow. I wonder how much more it will be when the body bags show up? 

On another note this has given western analysts the opportunity to evaluate Russian weapons and tactics in a real world environment and they appear to be not much different from the weapons and tactics of the Soviets. Russia is a paper tiger with nuclear weapons.